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The Gambler's Fallacy

The Gambler's fallacy is a dangerous thing to believe. In any gambling endeavor or session there are risks and luck is always peering over your shoulder. It is a rationalization that can poison your outlook and your session. Here is a quick description of what it is.

There's a simple fallacy that most gamblers end up clinging to desperately - this is predictably called the gambler's fallacy. Other names for this include the Monte Carlo fallacy and the more dangerous and supposed law of averages. This is the mistaken idea that if say, a coin is tossed ten times and comes up tails more than heads, that the next set of flips will give more heads that tails, in a sense thinking that is due. Nothing could be more dangerous to think, especially when money tends to change hands wildly in the wrong direction when that thought comes up. The simple fact is, the gambler's fallacy is the erroneous though that previous action will change or influence the flow of luck and chance in games that heavily rely on it.

Common examples of the gambler's fallacy in action are when say a player is playing standard draw poker and has received cards that end up with him playing the lonely and sad game of high card, no matter what he does. The gambler ends up losing more in this session than any other - and then the fall into the trap. They keep playing, thinking that they're due and they can make it big, like the Monte Carlo. Truth is, they might or they might not. No one can really tell. The gambler's fallacy does not guarantee failure after all, only that failure does not necessarily lead to victory. The error and fallacy lies mainly in thinking that bad beats have earned them good cards.

The gambler's fallacy also appears squarely when gamblers get stuck playing on slots machine and keep playing it, saying that it's due for a big payoff soon. This bad gambling habit has been covered extensively and all views into the matter suggest the same thing - that playing the same slot machine does not necessarily make it "hot" and playing it longer does not increase or decrease the chance of victory. Repetitiveness does not change the odds when it comes to casino games.

That's a basic overview of the dangers of the gambler's fallacy. Gambling enthusiasts and gambling hobbyists should beware of falling into dangerous territory. Keep a good eye on yourself and you should stay fine. Fall into a series of bad beats on the wrong night and you may end up following the gambler's fallacy and taking a monetary fall yourself.